Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
