Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
